Last Call for Gay Cowboy Jokes

Crap.  Oscars already.  Time to randomly check boxes and kiss $5 goodbye.  No, wait:  I mean, it’s time to care.  To solemnly prognosticate and put our faith behind the finest film has to offer.

Sure, that.

Even though I have yet to discuss the content of any of 2005’s releases – whoops, my bad, it’ll be up by Monday – the Academy Awards are more about politics and publicity campaigns and rabbit feet than actual quality, and I have no qualms making a separate go at who’ll win and why.  Also, who should win.  And, because there’s this Anti-Oscar contest (via), who’s least likely to win.

Lot of close calls, this time around.  Last year I went 14 of 24; this year I hope to do even worse.  Let’s to it:

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain - Focus Features
Capote - Sony Pictures Classics
Crash - Lions Gate
Good Night, & Good Luck - WIP
Munich - Universal

This is a two-horse race between the sleep-inducing respectable Mountin’ and the clueless populist Crash.  While Angelenos love to be reminded there are black people in their segregated sprawl, this comes down to which self-righteous minority group they feel most comfortable pissing off.  Race riots will never reach Malibu, and Phillipe reaches into your hair, dahling, so:

Will win:  Brokeback Mountain

Should win:  Zzzzzzz.

Definitely won’t win:  Capote.

BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller - Capote
Steven Spielberg - Munich

A dangerous one, because of Clooney.  Actors make up the largest single block of the Academy, and they often throw their weight behind mediocre actor-turned-directors (Kevin Costner, Robert Redford, Mel Gibson, Ron Howard).  But in the end, it’ll be Ang Lee, for making Brokeback more than the butt of a billion jokes and for his range (the last time he got nominated, it was for Crouching Tiger).

Will win:  Lee

Should win:  Lee

Definitely won’t win:  Bennett Miller

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
David Strathairn - Good Night. And, Good Luck

Was supposed to be neck-and-neck between Hoffman and Phoenix, but conventional wisdom says this is all Hoffman’s, now.  I’m not so sure:  I didn’t think Phoenix was particularly good, but he did sing, and people who liked Line seem awful disappointed it didn’t get a Picture nod.  I think they’ll vote that, here.  Also, get the feeling Hoffman is respected, but not particularly well-liked.  I’ll go for the upset:

Will win:  Phoenix.

Should win:  Damian Lewis, Keane.  Bravest performance of the year.

Definitely won’t win:  Straithairn 

BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightly - Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line

Were there actresses, this year?  Other than Jessica Simpson?  Hadn’t noticed.  I’ve only seen one of these films, but am shocked that Theron – wasn’t that role obvious Oscar-bait – and Dench – for some tee-hee nudie comedy? – were nominated.  Every year there’s a cry about there being too few roles for women, and every year the Academy willfully ignores great female performances from overseas (Last year, it was the astounding Moon So-Ri from Oasis).  So we’re left, here, with Witherspoon and Huffman.  One’s ultra-annoying, and one is on a (gasp) television show.  What to do, what to do.

Will win:  Witherspoon.  She sang, too.

Should win:  Sibel Kekilli, Head-On

Definitely won’t win:  Theron.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Dillon - Crash
George Clooney - Syriana
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

Good reasons for any of those first three.  A Giamatti win signals that the H’wood community doesn’t think of him as a leading man (he should have won for American Splendor).  Dillon’s win would be an effort to recognize the diverse cast of the film he’s representing.  That’s one of the reasons Clooney will win, too:  He’s repping the mostly nameless cast of Syriana.  He’s also been in two films, directed one of them, and is a genuine stahhhhhr.

Will win:  Clooney.

Should win:  Clooney.

Definitely won’t win:  Hurt, who was also in Syriana.  A lot of people hate History, and some who liked it hate that performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener

Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

A real toughie.  Adams’ supporters are fervent, and she was the best thing in a bad movie.  Keener felt like Jude Law this year – only you were always happy to see her.  Weisz was the center of a superior film; her win at the Globes still felt like a surprise.  While this award can often go to the youngest nominee, and her role garners some sympathy, Williams wasn’t showy enough.  Don’t hear anyone clamoring about McDormand.

Will win:  Weisz.

Should win:  Weisz.

Definitely won’t win:  McDormand. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid & The Whale - Noah Baumbach
Good Night. And, Good Luck - George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan
Crash - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco

Some years, the script categories go to deserving smaller movies; others, it’s the clear runner-up for the Best Picture nom that comes in 2nd.  Guess which year this’ll be? 

Will win:  Crash.

Should win:  Squid & the Whale

Definitely won’t win:  Match Point.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Constant Gardener - Jeffrey Caine
Capote - Dan Futterman
Munich - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
A History Of Violence - Josh Olson

You can make arguments all-round, but I think the McMurtry name, coupled with the embellishments that brought an eleven-page story to feature length, will win out here.

Will win:  Brokeback.

Should win:  Constant Gardener. 

Definitely won’t win: History of Violence.  

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Don't Tell - Italy
Joyeux Noel - France
Paradise Now - Palestine
Sophie Scholl - Germany
Tsotsi - South Africa

Paradise is the hot button film.  Too hot.  All the controversy over announcing “Palestine” as a nation along with grumbles about Munich’s nominations will scare folks off.

Will win:  Tsotsi.

Should win:  Haven’t seen any of these.

Definitely won’t win:  Don’t Tell.  

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room
March Of The Penguins
Murderball
Street Fight

Enron does a good job with the head, Murderball with the heart.  Ultimately Penguins will waddle away with it.  Academy members’ kids would kill them if it didn’t.

Will win:  Penguins.

Should win: The White Diamond

Definitely won’t win:  Street Fight.

ANIMATED FILM
Howl's Moving Casle
The Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit

A respectable batch, and I’d love to applaud the Academy for ignoring the lackluster CGI efforts, this year.  But I didn’t love any of these.  Howl’s was a bit of a mess for Miyazaki (who has already won, once, in the short history of this category), Corpse Bride was a pun-fest.  Wallace & Gromit was fun, but not as densely enjoyable as their Oscar-winning shorts.  I guess I’ll always have “The Wrong Trousers.”

Will win:  Wallace & Gromit.

Should win:  W&G

Definitely won’t win:  Corpse Bride.

And now, we just start a-guessin’.  The following categories – no, they’re not secondary, not at all – either go to the showy, or towards a consensus pick for Best Picture.  Figure on some Brokeback, with sprinklings of the glam Geisha.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Memoirs Of A Geisha
The New World

This one has everything.  Mongo budget, moody action adventure.  Scenic western.  Smoke-filled, black-and-white retrodrama.  Foreign spectacle.  Respected art film.

Will win:  Brokeback. 

Should win:  2046. Probably the biggest single oversight, in a year full of them.

Definitely won’t win:  Batman.

ART DIRECTION
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Pride & Prejudice

Will win:  Geisha

Definitely won’t win: Potter.

COSTUME DESIGN
Charlie And The Chocolate Factory
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
Walk The Line

Will win:  Geisha.

Definitely won’t win:  Mrs. Henderson.   It’s about strippers, right?  What is this, “Best Pasties?”

MUSIC (SCORE)
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Munich
Pride & Prejudice

Tough to vote against John Williams, especially when he’s paired with Yo-Yo Ma.  But Geisha Williams has to compete against Munich Williams.  Split the difference, and...

Will win:  Brokeback.

Should win:  Was there anything memorable, this year?

Definitely won’t win:  Gardener. 

MUSIC (SONG)
"In The Deep" From Crash
"It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" From Hustle & Flow
"Travelin' Thru" From Transamerica

Man, wouldn’t it be great to hear the words, “And the Oscar goes to... ‘It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp!’”  You won’t, though.  Dolly Parton takes one for the tranny pic!

Will win:  Transamerica.

Should win:  “Everyone Has AIDS!” from Rent.  Oh, wait...

Definitely won’t win:  Hustle & Flow.

The technical categories aren’t technical categories.  They’re artistic categories, too, dammit.  That’s why Star Wars didn’t get an f/x nod.

FILM EDITING
Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Munich
Walk The Line

Pretty dull bunch.

Will win:  Crash

Should win:  Oldboy

Definitely won’t win:  Munich.  That awful, awful sex scene.

MAKEUP
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge Of The Sith

We’re going with the boxing picture, here.  Everything in Star Wars was digital, and we found Mr. Tumnus’ chest hair unconvincing.  And disturbing.

Will win:  Cinderella Man

Definitely won’t win:  These three-nod categories make the Anti-contest tough.  I think I guessed Narnia.  Wish Land of the Dead  was here.  They’d never let that stumble away with an award.

SOUND EDITING
King Kong
Memoirs Of A Geisha
War Of The Worlds

Will Kong get abandoned by people because it wasn’t a blockbuster?  Or because its f/x work was done overseas?  Tech people aren’t that petty; they’ll split the difference.

Will win:  Kong

Definitely won’t win:  Geisha.  Why’d this get nominated?  Because the dubbing matched up?

SOUND MIXING
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Walk The Line
War Of The Worlds

Will win:  War of the Worlds

Definitely won’t win:  Geisha.

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
King Kong
War Of The Worlds 

Will win:  King Kong

Should win:  King Kong

Definitely won’t win:  Narnia.  Though the Jesus Lion was impressive.

Short films can make or break pools in closer years.  Luckily, it’s not a close year.  Do you vote based on title, or subject matter?

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Death Of Kevin Carter: Casualty Of The Bang Bang Club
God Sleeps In Rwanda
The Mushroom Club
A Note Of Triumph: The Golden Age Of Norman Corwin

Will win:  “Rwanda.”  We’re guessing the most recent bout of guilt wins over Hiroshima (“Mushroom”), Apartheid (“Kevin Carter”), and WWII:

Definitely won’t win:  “Note of Triumph.” 

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Badgered
The Moon And The Son: An Imagined Conversation
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations Of Jasper Morello
9
One Man Band

A shame that, unlike last year, these aren’t streaming online.

Will win:  “One-Man Band.”  It’s Pixar.

Should win:  “Jasper Morello.”  It looks neat.

Definitely won’t win:  “Badgered.”

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Cashback
The Last Farm
Our Time Is Up
Six Shooter

Gay Cowboy Jokes from Jon Stewart:  6

Gay Cowboy Jokes, total:  12

tags: brokeback mountain  oscar predictions  academy awards  walk the line  george clooney  crash  oscars  joaquin phoenix  academy award predictions  reese witherspoon  

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